摘要
Climate change poses a significant threat to global food security and contributes to land degradation and desertification. Consequently, land system issues emerge as one of the drivers of climate change. This study aims to investigate strategies for optimizing the allocation of land resources in the context of climate change, utilizing climate change scenario data from SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, coupled with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) released by the IPCC in 2020. We developed and validated the SD-PLUS coupled model. This model integrates socio-economic and climate change factors, and simulates land use change scenarios in Hangzhou for 2030, utilizing historical data from 2000 to 2020. The results demonstrate that the SD model prediction error was within 5%, the Kappa and FoM values were 0.84 and overall accuracy was 0.93, indicating that the SD-PLUS model accurately predicted land use change. Land use changes under the three scenarios exhibited distinct characteristics. Ecological land decreased under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, with forest and grassland transforming to construction land, particularly in Lin’an District, Fuyang District, and areas bordering the central urban area. The most significant change was observed in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, marked by a substantial expansion of construction land by 608.94 km². Only the SSP1-2.6 scenario demonstrated a systematic expansion of construction land into city centers, with a moderate decrease in ecological land. In the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the protection of ecological land effectively mitigated the uncontrolled expansion of construction land, enhanced land use efficiency, and fostered balanced ecological and economic development. In conclusion, the SD-PLUS coupled model skillfully simulated the spatial pattern of land use change in Hangzhou under different climate scenarios. The study findings offer valuable scientific insights to support the harmonization of future economic development and ecological preservation in Hangzhou.
引用格式
@article{2025_nyzyyhjxb_sd_plus,
title={Multi-scenario simulation of land use change in Hangzhou using the SD-PLUS model},
author={蔚芳 and JIANG Y W},
journal={Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
year={2025},
doi={None}
}
蔚芳
浙江大学副教授
现任浙江大学建工学院副教授。先后于同济大学获得城市规划学士与硕士学位，美国弗吉尼亚理工大学获得城市管理与规划博士学位。致力于空间规划与人工智能，气候变化与空间优化等方面的研究。主讲课程包括《国土空间规划理论与方法》、《城市经济学》等。已发表中英文书章及学术论文30余篇，其中学术专著7部，研究成果发表于《Landscape and Urban Planning》《Environment and Planning A》《城市规划》等国内外知名SCI/SSCI/EI期刊。主持国家自然科学基金、浙江省自然科学基金等多项科研项目，以及数十项城乡规划与设计实践项目；同时主持包括浙江大学慕课（MOOC）课程在内的十余项教学改革项目。曾获金钥匙国际荣誉协会终身荣誉会员等多项国际学术荣誉；以及全国城乡建设优秀勘察设计奖、建设部城乡建设优秀勘察设计项目、浙江省及杭州市等优秀城乡规划设计奖、我最喜爱的老师等多项荣誉与奖项。现为多个国际学术组织的会员或终身荣誉会员，担任十余种国际学术期刊的审稿人；并担任包括国家自然科学基金、浙江省自然科学基金等在内的诸多基金项目评审专家。