Evaluation of Urban Land Suitability under Multiple Sea Level Rise Scenarios

摘要

全球气候变化导致的海平面上升对城市土地构成了显著的洪水风险。在海平面上升情景下评估城市土地适宜性对于促进可持续发展至关重要。本研究以杭州西湖区为案例，运用熵权法和事物元模型评估城市开发适宜性。评估结果通过与土地利用规划进行交叉验证。对2100年城市土地的潜在洪水风险进行了综合分析，考虑了可持续发展情景SSP1-2.6和高端排放情景SSP5-8.5下的不同海平面上升程度，以及反映极端气候事件期间最严重海平面上升的情景。结果表明，研究区超过一半的土地适宜建设，其空间分布与当前规划的城市用地基本一致。情景分析显示，约10%至20%的研究区城市土地可能面临未来海平面上升带来的洪水威胁，主要集中在北部和东南部地区。论文讨论了应对未来洪水风险的土地开发和空间规划策略，旨在缓解城市土地面临的未来气候变化压力。

Abstract

Anticipated sea level rises from global climate change pose a significant flood risk to urban land. Evaluating urban land suitability under sea level rise scenarios is crucial for promoting sustainable development. This study focuses on Xihu District in Hangzhou, utilizing the entropy weight and matter-element model to evaluate land suitability for urban development. The evaluation results were cross-verified with land use plans. A comprehensive analysis of potential flood risk to urban land in 2100 was conducted, considering varying degrees of sea level rise under Sustainable Development Scenario SSP1-2.6 and High-end Emission Scenario SSP5-8.5, as well as the scenario reflecting the most severe sea level rise during extreme climate events. The results indicate that more than half of the land in the study area is suitable for construction, aligning spatially with the current planned urban land. Scenario analysis reveals that approximately 10% to 20% of urban land in the study area could face flooding threats due to future sea level rises, primarily in the northern and southeastern regions. Recommendations for future land development and spatial planning strategies to address flood risk are discussed, aiming to alleviate the pressure on urban land in response to future climate change.

引用格式

@article{2024_sustainability_sea_level_rise,
  title={Evaluation of Urban Land Suitability under Multiple Sea Level Rise Scenarios},
  author={Chenxin Ruan and 蔚芳},
  journal={Sustainability},
  year={2024},
  doi={10.3390/su16083485}
}