The Effect of Flood Risk on Residential Land Prices

摘要

洪水是当今最频繁的自然灾害之一。因此，探索洪水风险对住宅用地价格的影响，以促进土地资源的合理配置，并将气候变化风险控制纳入国土空间规划，具有重要意义。本文以杭州市主城区为例，基于424块住宅用地的数据，运用空间自相关分析和空间杜宾模型（SDM），研究了洪水风险对住宅用地交易价格的空间效应。结果表明，在其他条件相同的情况下，高洪水风险地块的价格会打折8.62%。从中国土地所有权和地价体系的角度进一步探讨了洪水风险影响地价的独特机制。此外，当周边地区的地价上涨1%，该地区的地价将上涨14.32%。文章还分析了通过洪水信息公开制度和利益相关者在比价中的考量对地价的空间溢出效应。杭州市洪水对住宅用地价格的影响是政府调控和市场配置共同作用的结果，这与许多西方国家的自由市场配置方式存在根本差异。有趣的是，无论是政府定价还是市场定价，洪水风险都已体现在地价中。将洪水风险纳入地价确定过程，有助于促进土地资源的优化配置，并最大限度地减少洪水灾害造成的折旧。

Abstract

Floods are one of the most frequent natural disasters today. Hence, it is highly important to explore the effect of flood risk on residential land prices to promote the rational allocation of land resources and incorporate climate change risk control into territorial spatial planning. This paper takes the primary urban area of Hangzhou as an example, based upon data from 424 residential land plots. With spatial autocorrelation analysis and the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) approach, the spatial effect of flood risk on residential transaction land price was investigated. The results show that, ceteris paribus, plots with high risk of flooding suffer a price discount of 8.62%. The unique mechanism of the way flood risk affects land prices was discussed further from the perspectives of land ownership and land price systems in China. Furthermore, when the land price in surrounding areas increases one percent, the land price in the area will increase 14.32%. The spatial spillover effects of land price were analyzed with the flood information disclosure system and the stakeholders’ considerations in land price comparison. The effect of flooding on residential land prices in Hangzhou is the result of government regulations and market allocations, which are fundamentally different from those of the free market allocations in many western countries. Interestingly, the risk of flooding is capitalized into the price, whether it is determined by government or market pricing. Integrating flood risk into land price determination can help promote the optimal allocation of land resources and minimize depreciation attributable to flood disasters.

引用格式

@article{2022_land_flood_risk,
  title={The Effect of Flood Risk on Residential Land Prices},
  author={蔚芳 and Lvwang Zhao},
  journal={Land},
  year={2022},
  doi={10.3390/land11101612}
}